It’s not that it’s not intelligent, it’s that predictive language models are obviously just one piece of the puzzle, and we’re going to need all the pieces to get to AGI. It’s looking incredibly doable if we figured out how to make something that’s dumb but sounds smarter than most of us already. We just need to connect it to other models that handle other things better.
The biggest hurdle is that we don’t actually know what intelligence really is at all yet, computationally. Most of the history of science has been repeatedly learning “but things were actually more complicated than originally expected,” so making claims that we’re soon to be able to replicate something that we don’t actually properly understand yet may be a bit premature. The desire to replicate human intelligence by a machine has been around since at least the 1200’s brazen heads, and yet for everything we’ve discovered since we’re still just beating our heads against a wall trying to sleuth out what it really is that makes us ‘think.’
It’s not that it’s not intelligent, it’s that predictive language models are obviously just one piece of the puzzle, and we’re going to need all the pieces to get to AGI. It’s looking incredibly doable if we figured out how to make something that’s dumb but sounds smarter than most of us already. We just need to connect it to other models that handle other things better.
The biggest hurdle is that we don’t actually know what intelligence really is at all yet, computationally. Most of the history of science has been repeatedly learning “but things were actually more complicated than originally expected,” so making claims that we’re soon to be able to replicate something that we don’t actually properly understand yet may be a bit premature. The desire to replicate human intelligence by a machine has been around since at least the 1200’s brazen heads, and yet for everything we’ve discovered since we’re still just beating our heads against a wall trying to sleuth out what it really is that makes us ‘think.’
You don’t speak predictively. It’s not one of the pieces, it’s a parlor trick.