Personal anecdote, but I was in Taiwan recently for my grandmother’s funeral. People (at least in Taipei) are surprisingly pro China. I’ve heard excuses like, “Chinese people don’t fight Chinese people” or “China is threatening Taiwan to tell the US to back off, they don’t actually want to do anything.” Also, there has been rising skepticism towards the US due to a perceived refusal to back Ukraine by bringing them into NATO.
There is no doubt in my mind that, if China chose to go to war, that the US would defend Taiwan with boots on the ground. I see Taiwan as too strategically important for defending the liberal international world order, and letting Taiwan fall would set a precedent for the South China Sea, where China’s getting its way could spell the end of freedom of navigation in a region that a third of global trade passes through.
Given current Taiwan political trends, I think many people are dissatisfied with the Tsai administration and would like to seek more business and cultural exchange with the mainland. Among the four presidential candidates, if you add up the three opposition candidates vs the incumbent DPP representative Lai, you will see that a majority oppose the DPP. However, there has been indecision as to which opposition candidate to unify behind.
Personal anecdote, but I was in Taiwan recently for my grandmother’s funeral. People (at least in Taipei) are surprisingly pro China. I’ve heard excuses like, “Chinese people don’t fight Chinese people” or “China is threatening Taiwan to tell the US to back off, they don’t actually want to do anything.” Also, there has been rising skepticism towards the US due to a perceived refusal to back Ukraine by bringing them into NATO.
There is no doubt in my mind that, if China chose to go to war, that the US would defend Taiwan with boots on the ground. I see Taiwan as too strategically important for defending the liberal international world order, and letting Taiwan fall would set a precedent for the South China Sea, where China’s getting its way could spell the end of freedom of navigation in a region that a third of global trade passes through.
Given current Taiwan political trends, I think many people are dissatisfied with the Tsai administration and would like to seek more business and cultural exchange with the mainland. Among the four presidential candidates, if you add up the three opposition candidates vs the incumbent DPP representative Lai, you will see that a majority oppose the DPP. However, there has been indecision as to which opposition candidate to unify behind.