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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • Non-paywalled link: https://archive.is/G584y

    Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine

    It really is something how almost all English-langage media uses the phrase “full-scale invasion” in lockstep.

    From a strictly military perspective, restrictions never help.

    “From a strictly military perspective” is a nonsense framing, especially in a relatively limited war like this. Militaries are for (1) resolving political questions when peaceful attempts at resolution break down, and (2) deterring other countries from walking away from serious attempts at peaceful resolution. There is no world where you set aside the ultimate political goals; that’s the whole point!

    The modest seizure of Russian territory may strengthen Ukraine’s bargaining position in negotiations, ease Russian pressure on Ukrainian defenses in the Donbas, or weaken Russian President Vladimir Putin politically, but it is unlikely to change the military picture in a significant way.

    Should have dispensed with the saber-rattling and started here. This isn’t going to change the overall direction of the war; at most it will prolong the inevitable.

    These are the last days of WWI, where people keep dying despite everyone knowing that the war’s end is imminent.



  • That’s just stupid. Are they really suggesting Ukraine should focus solely on grinding through fortified Russian defenses?

    That’s clearly a losing strategy, too, but the “we’ll fight them to the last Ukranian” crowd is still too far from reality to admit it.

    The best decision for the Ukranian people is to negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible, which means accepting that when you are losing a war the peace isn’t going to involve crazy shit like getting more territory than you started with (Crimea). They’ve lost, and they can come to terms with it now or do so later after a bunch more Ukranians die only get a worse outcome.

    The reason the Ukranian government isn’t doing that is because their NATO puppetmasters don’t give a shit about the casualties of their proxies – they just want to bleed Russia as much as possible. So without the option to negotiate, and with the impossibility of winning on the main front, they have to try Hail Mary gambits like the Kursk invasion.





  • The point here is that you don’t even know the basic facts you’re talking about. Russia didn’t want Crimea in 2022; they already had it.

    It’s also laughable – genuinely embarrassing – to suggest Russia is trying to conquer all of Europe. Pure fantasy plucked straight out of thin air.

    As for deterrence, that’s already been accomplished, especially if you believe the casualty numbers Ukranian propaganda puts out. Clearly there is a cost to war. The goal now is to end the fighting on as favorable of terms as you can realistically get.