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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 23rd, 2023

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  • Sanctions have not been effective - AQAH has been sanctioned since 2007, and only the direct military threat on Iranian planes bringing cash seems to be having the desired impact.

    The quiet part is here in the details - Iran is Hezbollah’s financier - confirming what everyone has known for decades. AQAH is unlicensed, yet they do business with AQAH because they know that someone (Iran) will guarantee AQAH’s debts. More importantly, it shows a path forward for Lebanon - to simply enforce their existing sovereignty and laws - punishing banks that do business with unlicensed banks.





  • Small strikes against any IRGC personnel stationed outside Iran - they’re fair game and on the table. We’re already seeing this with the strikes on Damascus and throughout Lebanon.

    Also - based on the saber rattling and talking heads, it sounds like there are likely to be three potential targets: the dams, which would cause massive domestic economic damage to Iran; the oil facilities, which would cause massive economic damage to the Iranian regime; finally, known nuclear sites, which are in line with Israeli rhetoric about preventing Iranian nuclear ambitions.

    I think cooler heads will prevail and the dams won’t be targeted, and without a regional coalition committed to a ground invasion with a goal of regime change, attacking the nuclear facilities won’t have the strategic impact that’s desired. Which leaves the oil refineries - there’s a natural bottleneck for Iranian oil production/export so there’s a short list of physical areas that need to be attacked for it to be effective.

    Thinking on it further, IRGC headquarters should also be on the table. I don’t think it’s likely, but if it succeeds (and it’s likely to succeed - especially with direct US support) then it’s a huge win. But even if it does succeed I don’t see it leading to real regime change in Iran, so without that strategic impact it’s far less likely.









  • Much as everyone is laughing at this, there are several European countries that recently purchased Israeli missile defense systems. This could potentially be Russia attempting to show them that it won’t work (or probe for weaknesses - depends how far along they are in their anti-anti-missile program).

    Either way, it does put Russia on the spot as knowingly providing weapons that will likely be used against Israel. Which hopefully will mean greater support of Ukraine by Israel, who have up until now been avoiding that to maintain security ties with Russia in order to counter Iranian operations in Syria.


  • There’s actually more if you click on “findings” or “sample report” at the bottom of the page

    Literally what I clicked on to copy out those two points. The rest are more of the same with varying degrees of nuance.

    it also shows that “the majority of Israelis support genocide in Palestine” is a proven fact

    It very much does not prove that. It says that 81% support current Israeli actions - as viewed by Israelis who very much do not believe there is a genocide going on there. If you can’t comprehend the difference between those two statements then there is no conversation or intelligent discussion to be had here.


  • I’ll just include the top two points - they’re the most relevant.

    • An overwhelming majority of the Palestinians (81%) think the Palestinian suffering under the siege and blockade of the Gaza Strip justifies what Hamas did on October 7; only 28% of Israeli Arabs take this view. Among Israeli Jews, 84% believe Hamas’ attack on October 7 justifies current Israeli actions in the Gaza Strip.

    • We asked how Israelis interpreted Palestinian aims on October 7 and in the ensuing war. The vast majority of Israeli Jews (93%) attribute maximalist and genocidal aspirations to the Palestinians’ aim: 66% select “to commit genocide against us,” and 27% believe the aim is to conquer land and expel the Jews. When Palestinians were asked how they interpret Israel’s aim in the current war, again, a vast majority of Palestinians (88%) attribute maximalist and genocidal aspirations to Israel: 61% select “commit genocide against us,” and 27% select “to conquer our land and expel the people.”

    I went through it - it’s pretty fucking bleak which makes it even more important to avoid confirming the persecution bias on both sides